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Platform shifts happen every decade or so in computing. The leaders of the previous generation are rarely successful in dominating the next generation platform. IBM dominated the mainframe business. They didn’t lose their dominance because another company built a better mainframe. They lost it because the market shifted to a new platform…Mini computers. Digital Equipment, Data General, and a few others dominated that market. Another platform shift is happening today, from PCs to Mobile devices, and another industry leader will be left behind. John Herlihy of Google Europe says “In three years time desktops will be irrelevant”

The future of computing is that your cell phone will become your primary computer, communicator, camera, and entertainment device, all in one. The exciting new applications are running in the browser, with application code and data in the cloud, and the cell phone as a major platform.  I think in the near future there will be docking stations everywhere with a screen and a keyboard. You simply pull out your phone, plug it into the docking station, and instantly all your applications and data are available to you. You can connect to the Internet via your cell phone service, WiFi hotspot, or wired connection.  Your phone will have enough storage so you can decide which applications and data are stored on your phone, and which will be in the cloud. Replication will work seamlessly in the background so that you always have a backup copy of your data in the cloud. Where does that leave the PC industry leaders? Scrambling towards mobile.

Why do leaders fail to adapt? The Innovators Dilemma, made famous by Clayton Christensen, clearly explains why market leaders fail to make the leap. Innovation usually happens at the low end of the market where the products are simple, prices are low, margins thin, and the market totally undefined. The industry leaders have great margins, high prices, and customers who want more features and are willing to pay for them. The industry leaders always move up market and leave the new emerging market to smaller innovators. The process usually follows these 6 steps;

1. The disruptive technology is discovered, often by the market leading company.
2. Marketing people seek reactions from customers and industry analysts.
3. Established companies decide it is a better strategy to speed up the pace of sustaining technical advancement in their own product rather than go down market with the disruptive technology.
4. Start-ups learn about the disruptive technology and see opportunity. They keep their cost structure low, build the technology, and find new markets through trial and error.
5. The start-ups get some initial success and then move up market and eat away customers from the market leading company.
6. The market leading company finally jumps on the bandwagon reluctantly with a half hearted attempt and fails. It is too late.

Giants don’t die quickly – IBM dominated the mainframe computer business in the 60’s and 70s. They didn’t make the shift to Mini-computers until it was too late. They did finally make the transition from a hardware company to a professional services company and IBM is still a very successful, but different company.  

Digital Equipment, Data General, Hewlett Packard, Sun Microsystems, and others attacked IBM from the low end with Mini-computers and Workstations. They didn’t try to build a better mainframe. They moved the market to lower end, cheaper, faster, computing models. I worked at Digital Equipment in the late 80’s when they had over 130,000 employees and billions in revenue. However, when the platform shift to PCs happened none of these industry leaders made the leap fast enough. None of these companies exist today. (Update) Actually, Hewlett Packard does exist today as HP, and is better known for printers…and PCs.

The platform shift to PCs was ironically started by IBM. However, they quickly lost the lead to Compaq, Dell, and others. The real winner in the PC platform shift was Microsoft. Microsoft dominated the PC software business in the 80s and 90s, and extended that dominance into server software like Windows Server, SQL Server, and Sharepoint. Will Microsoft lose its dominance to a competitor that builds a better desktop Operating System? Some would argue that Apple did with the Mac, but Microsoft still has over 90% market share. Another proof point that market leaders don’t lose their dominance to competitors…they lose it to market shifts. Like IBM, Microsoft will be a financially strong company for many years to come. But, an innovator and industry leader?

Platform shifts have 10X the number of devices and users. The move to Mobile is big and fast. Mary Meeker of Morgan Stanley says Mobile Internet usage is bigger than most people think, and it is exploding. Every platform shift has 10X the number of devices and users. There were about 1M mainframes, 10M mini-computers, 100M PCs, and 1 Billion cell phones. The next wave of mobile devices will be over 10B.

Think about the mobile phone you had in 1999, just a little over 10 years ago. Mine was a Motorola StarTac flip phone. It was state of the art at the time, but it had no camera, no email, no text messaging, no web browsing…just a phone. Now think about where mobile devices will be in 10 years. The iPhone you have today will feel like the StarTac of 10 years ago.

There will be an explosion in mobile bandwidth too. Again, think about the Internet access you had 10 years ago…probably 56K dial up or 128K ISDN. Today broadband is nearly universal. With the roll out of the 700Mhz wireless spectrum over the next 5 years we will see an explosion in mobile bandwidth just like we did from dial up to broadband. This will enable amazing new mobile applications and businesses.

Google’s big bets on the future of computing line up perfectly with the vision of “exciting new applications are running in the browser (Chrome), with application code and data in the cloud (Gmail, Google Apps, Google App Engine), and the cell phone as a major platform (Android). Oh, and that web search thing looks like it will be big too. :-0

Will history repeat itself? Will the previous platform leaders (PCs) fail to make the leap to lead the new Mobile platform shift? Will it happen in three years? All good questions that are open to debate. The direction seems clear, it is just a matter of time.

Check out Don Dodge on The Next Big Thing